U.S. Debt to GDP 1929 – 2022

Debt to GDP Ratio 1929 2022

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US National Debt by Year, By Kimberly Amadeo, Updated on January 18, 2023. Reviewed by Robert C. Kelly,  Fact checked by Emily Ernsberger.

Reversing Course – Learning from the past. In 1946, the U.S. Debt to GDP ratio was 119%. This was at a time following WWII when national resources were dedicated to the war effort. This ratio was exceeded for the first time in 2020 at 129% and was 123% in 2022.

After WWII, the U.S. owned half the world’s markets. Pent-up demand for manufactured goods created a middle class and led to reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio to as low as 31% in 1981.  Global competition and failure to understand and adopt the better quality management methods pioneered by W. Edwards Deming (that ironically were classified during WWII), continue to contribute to a loss in American productivity and competitiveness.

Ironically, although the quality methods were de-classified after the War, they continue to be a well-kept secret in America. The solution? Apply the better methods that will result in what Deming referred to as a Chain Reaction – improve quality, costs decrease, productivity improves, capture the market with better quality and lower costs, stay in business, create jobs and more jobs.   The additional context is provided at: https://successthroughquality.com/

April 21, 2020. U.S. Debt to Surge Past Wartime Record, Deficit to Quadruple, By Christopher Condon and Dave Merrill

US Debot projection 1940 to 2025

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Christian Nationalism – A Simple Test?

How Much of a Christian Nationalist Are You? Take This Simple Test. Scott Hogenson | Jan 29, 2023

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A different question? What actions by individuals and groups produce the best results for everyone? Variation is a natural part of creation. The Constitution identifies the aim of the U.S. system of government as working towards “a more perfect Union.” There will always be a gap between the current reality and the “perfect” situation.

How do “We the People” (top management) define more perfect? What feedback is needed to assess results? How will we know that a change will result in an improvement?

A Christian worldview supports the premise that actions motivated by love result in more needs being met. This leads to fewer people being harmed by unmet needs. In contrast, more centralization of political power through the erosion of the checks and balances on power has been proven throughout history to result in more harm than good.

The quality profession through the Taguchi Loss Function has validated that the closer you get to “more perfect,”  the higher the quality and the less harm to individuals and society.   Improvement in any aspect of life all has to do with reducing variation. A summary of the concept at the following: successthroughquality.com

Avoiding Spiritual Plateaus

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There are no spiritual plateaus

Exclusive: Greg Laurie warns readers not to put ‘the Christian experience on cruise control’

Variation is a natural part of God’s creation and represents the gap between the ideal or more perfect and the actual situation.

Variation either gets better or gets worse which makes continual improvement imperative if the goal is better results.

The quality profession through the Taguchi Loss Function has validated that continually reducing variation leads to better quality with fewer negative consequences on the individual and society.

Within the Christian community, a common perception is that continual improvement is more of a “business thing.” The fact is that continually reducing variation is a moral imperative supporting the guidance that there should be no spiritual plateaus nor should learning be put on cruise control.

https://www.wnd.com/2023/01/no-spiritual-plateaus/

Would Have Been Branded a Domestic Extremist Today?

LinkedIn WWJD Rutherford

Yes, Jesus Would Have Been Branded a Domestic Extremist Today, By John & Nisha Whitehead, December 19, 2022

“The modern-day church has largely shied away from applying Jesus’ teachings to modern problems such as war, poverty, immigration, etc., but thankfully there have been individuals throughout history who ask themselves and the world: what would Jesus do.” One thing Jesus would continue to do is take action motivated by love that reduces variation from the ideal resulting in more needs being met. Variation is a natural part of creation and represents the gap between “more perfect” and the current situation. A summary of the concept and methods for reducing variation at the following: https://successthroughquality.com/

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Jan 6 Committee Hearings

“… assault of the capital …  by individuals that were told by senior leaders they were doing the right thing … Jan 6 should never happen again ….”

Post from Charles D. Luckey (LTG, USA, Ret)

  • Team: Been a little over a week since the January 6th Committee finished up its first tranche of hearings. Already plenty of probative evidence to assess and reasonable inferences to draw from it; every indication that there is more forthcoming. Good time to reflect on our Constitutional Oath within the context of what happened and why, and to embrace the steps we need to take to ensure it never happens again. Our global competitors/adversaries are counting on us to be consumed with apathy, cynicism and toxic partisanship, and they’ll continue to do their best to sow the seeds of discord. We need to work together to disappoint them. Keep pounding…W/r, Chief

Regarding the “hearings” where the jury, in this case, is intended to be the public, wasn’t this a one-sided process? In a typical “trial,” BOTH sides of the argument are presented, witnesses are cross-examined and challenged, and an impartial “judge” ensures the rules of evidence are followed. The “jury” can then assess all sides of the respective issues and derive a decision.

Regarding retired military officers providing commentary on political matters, the question of “Does it do more good than harm?” comes to mind. What has been the history and doctrine on the issue? This topic was discussed in an article in the Army War College’s Parameters, Spring 2022, “Civil-Military Relations” Guidelines in Politically Charged Societies” by Patrick Paterson.

The elements of national power include   Diplomatic (political), Informational, Military, and Economic. Senior military leaders are expected to be the authority (based on education and experience) on “military” matters. Commentary outside their respective areas of expertise can lead to undermining the respect and confidence citizens should have in the military profession. A recent illustration is the criticisms of Gen Milley’s commentary provided in a resignation letter provided in the Western Journal “Gen. Mark Milley’s Insanely Arrogant 4-Paragraph Resignation Letter to Trump Is Released.

In comparison to the process applied in support of the “Hearings,” the military decision-making process (MDMP) reinforces the need for a balanced and comprehensive methodology which includes the following: Identification of intent and decision criteria followed by an analysis of all the facts, assumption and constraints. Theories are developed as to the best courses of action (decisions). Strengths and weaknesses are identified and debated (wargamed). A decision is then made and consequences are studied through after-action reviews. The process requires the input from every functional area that has to either support or execute the decision. A balanced and objective AAR on the “Hearings” may help reinforce why there is such divisiveness and polarization in the country.

Can the church regain its prophetic voice?

church 2 michael brown 2022_08_03Can the church regain its prophetic voice?  by Michael Brown: ‘We who were called to be shining lights in the darkness failed to shine’

Yes, to the church regaining its prophetic voice.

Additional strategies may be helpful. Variation is a natural part of creation and represents the difference between an ideal and actual situation.

The quality profession, through the Taguchi Loss Function, has validated that the closer any product or service gets to the ideal or target, the higher the quality and the lower the cost to society.

Any actions motivated by a secular or non-secular-based philosophy or method will produce different results.

Surveys developed by Gallup and the Barna Group have documented the long-term and systemic decline in church attendance, a belief in God, and a biblical worldview. Time to try something new? Individuals may lose faith in God, but variation is a constant and either get better or worse. SuccessThroughQuality.com

https://lnkd.in/gx4GCdx2

How to make a great country, better

The U.S. system of government is designed to be continually improved with the aim of “We the People” making progress toward “a more perfect Union.” The opportunity is to consider applying a proven method for reducing imperfection that will produce results where we all gain or, at least, are not any worse off.

“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”Preamble to the U.S. Constitution

A problem with the word “perfect” is that the term can be used in a context where perfection can be perceived as being obtainable. The U.S. Founding Fathers were careful to prevent citizens from drawing this conclusion by using the phrase “more perfect.” Legendary football coach Vince Lombardi reinforced the “more perfect” theme in his statement: “Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.”

A 2016 Gallup survey indicated that 89% of Americans believe in God or a universal spirit. Many of the Founding Fathers were influenced by the biblical philosophy that only God is perfect and that man is imperfect but is expected to improve. Consequently, it might be concluded that life is all about reducing imperfection.

W. Edwards Deming, who is the founding father of many effective quality improvement methods, concluded that if he was to reduce his message to just a few words, it all had to do with reducing variation. Reducing variation is synonymous with reducing imperfection. A description of variation in a context that supports the interrelationship between variation, perfection, excellence, and quality is as follows:

American Society for Quality: What Is the Law of Variation?

“In simple yet profound terms, variation represents the difference between an ideal and an actual situation.

An ideal represents a standard of perfection—the highest standard of excellence—that is uniquely defined by stakeholders, including direct customers, internal customers, suppliers, society, and shareholders. Excellence is synonymous with quality, and excellent quality results from doing the right things, in the right way.

The fact that we can strive for an ideal but never achieve it means that stakeholders always experience some variation from the perfect situations they envision. This, however, also makes improvement and progress possible. Reducing the variation stakeholders experience is the key to quality and continuous improvement.”

Ideals are derived from basic human needs. America’s ideals were identified in the Declaration of Independence:

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”

Deming concluded that, without knowledge of common and special cause variation, 95% of actions taken to improve a situation results in no improvement and can make things worse. Knowing the difference between common and special cause variation results in a higher success rate because it leads to improving systems. Further, it leads to knowledge through assessments to determine what worked, what did not work, and what might be done differently next time to successfully reduce variation. (Assess your knowledge of the variation paradigm.)

By implementing the methods proven to be effective in reducing variation, the United States has the potential to surpass and then sustain the economic boom and prosperity it experienced after WWII (1947-1977) when the country had a global competitive advantage. But as Deming often remarked: “It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory.”

Despite the conclusion drawn by major media outlets such as FORTUNE magazine and U.S. News and World Report that Deming’s work represents one of the most fundamental improvements in business if not human history, Deming’s work is still virtually undiscovered.

When Deming described the scope of the needed transformation, he used the term metanoia, which he defined as “penitence, repentance, reorientation of one’s way of life, spiritual conversion.”Norman Todd elaborated on this premise in his paper Metanoia and Transformation II.

A Way Ahead

Perhaps if more leaders recognize the connection between imperfection and variation, they might become more aware of the connection between science and spirituality. This, in turn, might lead to the broader application of Deming’s teachings.

Leading this change will require that a critical mass of leaders embrace the new paradigm for Quality Leadership that will support a Vision for Transformation.

Online school to be largest internet company in 2030

A top futurist predicts the largest internet company of 2030 will be an online school

Seems like an ambitious projection until you think of how fast the unmanned vehicle technology has progressed.

DARPA sponsored their Grand Challenge in 2004 that required a vehicle to autonomously navigate a 142-mile course. None of the 15 vehicles made it to the finish line. In 2005, five (5) vehicles completed a 132-mile course.

 

Crossover to Quality Leadership

In music or art, a crossover artist is an individual that is successful in a “genre other than the one in which they achieved their initial success.”

Two articles in the American Society for Quality’s (ASQ) November 2016 issue of Quality Progress (QP) reinforce the opportunity to recognize the need for greater crossover from the non-science and business management disciplines. This crossover can be supported by embracing the broader concepts and strategies needed to support ASQ’s vision of being the global voice of quality.

In their excellent article, Understanding Variation, Nolan, Perla and Provost reinforce the need for the understanding of variation from a statistical frame of reference that is of benefit to almost everyone.  The article also  includes the quote from W. Edwards Deming that “Another half-century may pass before the full spectrum of Dr. Shewhart’s contributions has been revealed in liberal education, science, and industry.

“A liberal education is a system or course of education suitable for the cultivation of a free (Latin: liber) human being. It is based on the medieval concept of the liberal arts or, more commonly now, the liberalism of the Age of Enlightenment.” (Wikipedia).

In addition to the sciences, liberal arts can also be defined as including …  philosophy, history, literature, music, art, and other so-called “humanities.”  (greatideas.org)

In the same issue of QP, the article by QP Staff “Fresh Faces: A new generation of quality leaders,” reinforces the underrepresentation of the “humanities” in academic disciplines and career pursuits.

I’m an exponent of a “”New Standard for Quality Leadership” that is derived from the contributions of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming.  This new standard and supporting paradigm requires the application of a broader understanding of variation. The more comprehensive description – “What is the law of variation?”  is available on ASQs website.

The so what?  The current state of quality represents the modern day equivalent of the belief that the earth is flat.

The better paradigm can be immediately applied to improve quality in any aspect of life and at any level.  Evidence of the shift to the new paradigm will include outcomes that can only be brought about when  …” the full spectrum of Dr. Shewhart’s contributions has been revealed in liberal education, science, and industry.